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The Dr. Speaks
In summary:
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We are in 4th place
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Ron won’t quit until we do
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We kicked ass in Nevada and Louisiana, after learning some tough lessons in New Hampshire
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The movement is still growing on a daily basis
What nefarious plot lurks behind those soft puppy dog eyes? Will he run 3rd-party? Will he force a convention fight to get on the winning GOP ticket? I’m not sure if even Dr. Paul knows for sure.
Here on Conspiracy Cove, Florida, the signs are everywhere you look. Rabid bands of disenfranchised Americans are slowly wandering the street, spreading the message to all who would listen. However, we are also up against the most critical, and stubborn, of voting blocks: America’s elderly.
Florida is a very strange state politically. On the one hand, you have many “old school” conservatives; gun loving, Reagan-hailing, free-market advocating, “We Liked Ike” Republicans. On the other hand, Florida has enjoyed a population surge in recent years as “Yankees” (such as myself) retreat from the insanity of NYC to join the Sunshine State. As you might expect, many of these “Yankeees” maintain a liberal slant. Florida also boasts an enormous Latino population, from the Cubans in Miami, to the Central Americans in Jacksonville. As mentioned, as any stand-up comic can tell you, Florida is also home to millions of elderly, who are, by a wide margin, the most frutrating of political opponents.
The majority of my elderly neighbors still rely on Faux News for information, and so, they have been incubated from most of the “real issues” that Dr. Paul is fighting for. For example, it is hard to oppose a growing police state to a person who has been told that “tasing” political dissidence is an acceptable response. I also find mixed response on issues of foreign policy. Never forget: many of America’s elderly have directly contributed to our military bases around the world today, especially in such places as Germany and Korea. As one neighbor explained to me: “We earned those bases. My buddies died for those bases”. To suggest a “worldwide pull-out” is a very scary thought to our surviving veterans of true World War.
However, when it comes to the economy, the elderly neighbors I have spoken to agree with everything Dr. Paul has to say. And why not? They have witnessed the effects first hand. Their social security benefits stagnated as inflation jumped and the dollar fell. Now they find themselves too old to work, afraid to invest in a shaky market, and clinging to USD-based assets that plunge in value. Most were holding significant investments in T-bills and land, and now, rather than realize gains, they ask themselves: how much have I lost?
So where does this leave us for Tuesday? I wish I knew. The polls in Florida look like this (averaged):
- McCain - 29.3%
- Romney - 28.5%
- Giuliani - 15.9%
- Huckabee - 13.4%
- Paul - 4.1%
What can we gather from this data?
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Giuliani’s run will end shortly after the Tuesday primary.
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Another win for McCain will help to further split the delegates, and will leave both McCain and Romney short of the 1,191 needed to win the GOP nomination. So what? Two words: convention fight.
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Huckabee is on course to become Vice-President, assuming he and McCain decide to team-up against Romney. In a McCain/Huckabee v. Romney convention fight, Ron Paul can play king-maker.
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Florida is a closed primary, meaning that only those who registered as Republicans before last month will be eligible to vote. This hurts Ron Paul, however, it will also show us our response from the GOP base itself.
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Thompson is out. Where will his voters go now? We may witness a significant “Thompson Bump”, in Florida, and elsewhere.
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The weather in Florida is forecast as 72* and sunny tomorrow. This will result in higher turnout, which will also work against Dr. Paul. Everyone I have spoken to is worried about this election; expect them to be out in droves tomorrow.
Final thought:
Every delegate we win is another “bullet in the gun of liberty”. Even if we are “losing”. Even if we remain stuck in 4th place forever. Even if it looks hopeless, and most fair-weather patriots have given up.
My new mantra:
CONVENTION FIGHT.
CONVENTION FIGHT.
CONVENTION FIGHT.
Yours in liberty,
Zap
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